Is the next super wind outlet coming for new energy vehicles?
The power exchange industry has seen a big positive.Starting from the second half of this year,China will carry out the pilot application of new energy vehicle power exchange mode nationwide.It is reported that the pilot project was jointly organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Energy [**]dministration.The specific contents include the promotion goal of the power change mode vehicles,encouraging the pilot project in public areas such as public transport,taxi,urban logistics distribution,ports,mines,and promoting commercial operation in the private sector.
In just one year,Sinopec and State Grid,the giants in the field of oil and charging piles,both joined the circuit of changing electricity.
Wei Lai and Sinopec signed a strategic cooperation agreement,and the world's first Wei Lai second generation power station was officially completed;The State Grid,which has been away from the field of power exchange for many years,
Strategic cooperation agreements have been signed with B[**]IC,F[**]W,Dongfeng,Weilai and other main engine manufacturers to jointly build and operate the power plant.
Zhang Yuzhuo,Chairman and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group of Sinopec,said,"It is possible to introduce power exchange in Sinopec's gas stations.It is planned to build at least 5000 hybrid stations during the 14th Five Year Plan period.The batteries should be standardized,and the chassis of cars should also be standardized,so that a power exchange station can be built in a gas station,and all electric vehicles can be replaced."
On May 20,the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy [**]dministration issued the Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Replacing Infrastructure(Draft for Comments).
The era of changing electricity is coming!
Under the policy dividend,capital support and the crazy layout of enterprises,the domestic electricity exchange market is taking off again.It is predicted in the industry that by 2035,the power exchange mode will bring a market opportunity of 100 billion yuan.
When the wind rises again
Due to the pressure of construction cost and sales volume,the domestic electricity exchange market has gone through three stages,from demonstration to electricity exchange,and then to parallel development of charging and replacing.
From 2009 to 2012,the domestic new energy vehicle market is still in the embryonic stage,and consumers'acceptance of new energy vehicles is low.[**]t that time,the State Grid took the lead in piloting taxi power exchange services in Hangzhou,focusing on demonstration.
From 2012 to 2018,due to the heavy asset operation of power replacement,there were few electric vehicles in the market,and the participation of automobile enterprises was not high,the battery standard could not be unified.The energy supplement technology of new energy vehicles has gradually turned to charging,and only a few enterprises adhere to the power change mode.
Since 2019,the government has successively introduced various new policies to revive the development of the power replacement industry,and the power replacement mode has become an important direction of the future development of the new energy vehicle industry.
In 2020,as an important part of the new infrastructure,the power plant will be included in the government work report for the first time.
[**]gainst the background of favorable policies,the leading enterprises in the field of power replacement have been favored by the capital market.In December 2019,Bertin Technology obtained the B round financing of Yunhe Capital;In [**]ugust 2020,[**]odong New Energy,which has the largest amount of power stations in China,attracted Sun Zhengyi's attention and reached strategic investment cooperation with Softbank Energy.Previously,[**]odong
New energy has also received shares from Weilai Capital.
Car enterprises also began to step up the layout of the electricity exchange market.In May 2020,when S[**]IC Roewe released the R standard of middle and high-end new energy vehicle brands,it said that it would realize the power battery architecture of"rechargeable,replaceable and upgradable".In September,the first station of Chang'an New Energy Exchange Power Station was officially completed in Chongqing Olympic Sports Center.In September,Geely Technology Group's smart power change
The station will be unveiled in Chongqing,and it is planned to expand to 100 exchange stations in 2021.
In addition,a number of start-ups have also entered the field of power replacement in good time,carrying the"new infrastructure"express train and looking for new opportunities.Cai Dongqing,the chairman of [**]odong New Energy,said that [**]odong New Energy is expected to build 10000 power exchange stations by 2025,covering 100 cities nationwide,and serving 10 million power exchange vehicles,including private cars.
The air vent has come
Has the pain point of the industry been solved
"Vehicle electricity separation is a thing worth exploring.It first solves the cost problem when users buy electric vehicles,and also solves the battery life problem.
”Yuan Feng,Director and General Manager of G[**]C Capital,said to Chuangye Bang.
In Yuan Feng's view,the solution to the problem of purchase cost and battery life will greatly promote the development of the entire electric vehicle industry.Wei Lai was the first to change the power supply.The BaaS sales model saved users 70000 or 80000 yuan when buying a car.With the innovation of battery technology,the range will continue to increase,and users can upgrade the car by changing the power
The power change mode realizes the functions of charging,exchanging and upgrading,and can solve users'anxiety about fast charging,convenient energy supplement,battery upgrading iteration and battery safety.
However,in the opinion of insiders,the current domestic power exchange field is facing"three mountains".First,it is difficult to achieve a unified battery standard,and it is impossible to carry out a unified large-scale construction of the power station;Second,the level of power exchange technology is limited,and there are potential safety hazards;Third,the construction and operation costs are too high.
Yu Qingjiao,secretary-general of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation [**]lliance and director of the Battery Hundred People [**]ssociation,pointed out that the difficulty of power replacement lies in the contradiction between the main engine factory and the battery enterprise.[**]t present,there is no battery for a model that matches the battery enterprise,and the battery box and battery module are not unified because the model cannot be unified.In addition,the cost of power replacement is also worth discussing.It is better to carry out mobile power replacement according to the distance,but there are potential safety hazards.
[**]t present,there are four power exchange modes in the domestic market,namely,Weilai's vehicle power separation,B[**]IC BJEV's chassis power exchange,and spatiotemporal electric side power exchange,
Change the power of Lifan's sub box.
The main vehicle electricity separation mode of Weilai takes 3-10 minutes to replace the battery,which is faster than charging.The power station will charge the replaced batteries in a centralized and slow manner to avoid the decline of battery power.Users can choose to only buy car body+rent battery,which to some extent alleviates the problem of low residual value of electric vehicles.But such replacement
The power station must have professional personnel on duty,and the personnel cost plus the construction cost of replacing the power station are very high.
The chassis power exchange of B[**]IC BJEV is mainly used in taxi and other fields.In 2020,the power exchange efficiency and full day power exchange capacity of the 4.0 version power exchange station launched by B[**]IC Motor Co.,Ltd.have been further improved,and it only takes 30 seconds for a single power exchange.However,the models are mainly EU quick change models and B[**]IC taxis,and the compatibility of power change is relatively low.
The core of the side power exchange mode of the spatiotemporal electric is the operation vehicle+power station,with a single power exchange time of 3-5 minutes,but it is mainly used in the field of online car hailing,taxi and logistics vehicles,and the private car field has not been involved.
The sub box power station of Lifan is to sub box and standardize the original huge battery,so that the same battery can be adapted to various models,not limited to a specific model of its own,and the power change time is less than three minutes.However,the battery for sub box replacement is arranged under the seat in the driver's cabin,so the mechanical assistance mode is relatively stiff,reducing the
The use experience of the whole vehicle.
"The difficulty in the commercialization of power replacement lies in the lack of unity among batteries,vehicle enterprises and models.Relatively speaking,power replacement technology has more potential in the field of online car hailing and bus."Yu Qingjiao said.
In May 2021,the State [**]dministration of Market Supervision(the National Standards Commission)approved the release of the national standard"Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Power Change",which is the first basic general national standard formulated by the automobile industry in the field of power change mode.The standard will be implemented from November 1,2021.The standard specifies the safety requirements,test methods and inspection rules for the interchangeable electric vehicles.
[**]cademician sun Fengchun,an academician of the C[**]E Member and professor of Beijing University of technology,said in the interview that the technical standards for power conversion of commercial vehicles(buses)had been partially unified 10 years ago.[**]t present,the technical standards for power replacement of private cars are still being actively promoted,including vehicle interface size standards,battery size standards and other aspects.Relevant parties have been trying to speed up the implementation of the standards.
In March 2021,a company named Qingdao United New Energy Vehicles(hereinafter referred to as"United [**]utomobile")introduced the electric vehicle power exchange scheme of"vehicle electricity separation,battery standardization and sharing",which attracted market attention.
Liu Tongxin,the chairman of United [**]utomobile,pointed out that the core competitiveness of United New Energy Vehicles lies in its research and development of pure electric vehicle power exchange technology scheme,that is,the technical scheme of using batteries in front of and behind the central axle of the vehicle chassis,batteries in series,and power exchange in separate boxes.This scheme is different from the current two modes of vehicle chassis up and down power exchange and power exchange on both sides of the vehicle enterprise.Because of this innovation,the vehicles produced by this scheme and their power exchange methods have strong competitive advantages in terms of power exchange efficiency,power exchange station construction cost,and adaptation to various electric vehicle systems.This is also the result of the launch of the United [**]utomobile Power Exchange Scheme,The main reasons for the concern of domestic new energy vehicle enterprises and power systems.
"The front end power exchange scheme of United [**]uto adopts the front end power exchange mode of the car,and has designed a battery standardization scheme.It only takes 3 minutes for the electric vehicle to change power,and only requires one third of the parking space for the power exchange station.The cost of each power exchange cabinet is only 100000 yuan.The cost of the power exchange cabinet is one twentieth of that of other enterprises,and the investment can be recovered in ten months.
”Wang Yingjie,deputy general manager of United [**]utomobile,said.
Due to the low cost of equipment,under the same total investment,large-scale and intensive coverage can be achieved through distributed deployment,reaching one within one kilometer,which is more intensive and convenient than gas stations.Through battery standardization,the adaptation of all mainstream models can be realized,which can greatly increase the business volume.
Under the background that the domestic power replacement field has failed to break through the bottlenecks such as cost and battery standardization for many years,the front-end power replacement scheme of United [**]uto may provide new ideas for the industry.
Opportunities for startups or games for head players?
How to make profits and whether the industry can achieve large-scale operation are two long-standing questions in the industry.
The reporter calculated an account.[**]t the end of 2019,the quotation of ternary lithium ion battery system was 0.8-1.2 yuan/Wh.Taking Weilai 70kWh battery pack as an example,if the unit price is 1 yuan/Wh,the cost of a group of batteries is 70000 yuan.The first generation replacement power station of Weilai is equipped with five sets of batteries,and the battery cost is 350000 yuan;The number of batteries of the second generation replacement power station jointly invested and built with Sinopec will increase to 13 sets,and the cost of batteries will be up to 910000 yuan.
Weilai said that the mass production price of a single replacement power station is about 1.5 million yuan,and more than 300 replacement power stations will be arranged in 2021,that is,the construction cost of Weilai replacement power stations in 2021 will be as high as 450 million yuan.
Wang Yingjie told Chuangye Bang that Weilai's power exchange mode is more based on brand differentiation,and can be cost free and continue to lose money;The headquarter of [**]odong New Energy is concentrated in the taxi industry in Beijing,but it is still unable to make profits;Botan Technologies is currently seeking to acquire.
Spatio Electric,founded in 2013,was once valued at about US$1 billion,and was regarded as the Chinese version of"Iron Man".In February 2018,Space Time Electric obtained a round C financing of 1 billion yuan,with a total financing amount of nearly 3 billion yuan.The investors include Qingyu Fund,Micang Capital,[**]miba Capital,Huaying Capital,etc.
Since then,for as long as three years,Space Time Electric has not obtained any financing and has repeatedly"exploded"due to poor management.In March 2017,Qunxing Toys,nicknamed by the market as a"restructuring specialist",disclosed a major asset restructuring plan,and planned to acquire 100%of the equity of space-time energy by issuing shares at a price of 2.9 billion yuan.
Only half a year later,Qunxing Toys announced the termination of this major asset restructuring.In May 2021,Space Time Electric added a new information about the person to be executed,which became the person to be executed due to the equity transfer dispute,with the target amount of 14.6 million yuan.
Facing the profit bottleneck,several leading enterprises in the industry have begun to change their business models.
"From the perspective of investment,the power station replacement project may not be a good target,but Weilai is very smart to take this step."Yuan Feng believes that China's gas station layout is well done.Fuel owners are used to going to fixed gas stations to refuel.Wei Lai is changing power stations in those places,which means that it is the most convenient place in the city to solve the energy problem.
The cooperation between Weilai and Sinopec can be said to be an exploration for the power change enterprise to join hands with the oil giant to let the charging station enter the gas station mode,and also an attempt to improve the profitability of the power change mode.
In the context of China's realization of carbon neutrality by 2060,Sinopec itself also needs to adjust its business.Through cooperation with Weilai,we can gradually reduce the"carbon content"of Sinopec's traditional business by increasing the proportion of green energy saving business.
In addition,Yuan Feng pointed out that power replacement belongs to the heavy asset industry,which has a long return period,and the power battery standard is not uniform.Therefore,the power replacement business is more suitable for one company in the car enterprise to do,serving the ecology of the entire car enterprise,so that it has the opportunity to stand out from the market.For startups,electricity replacement is not a good business model.
In other words,changing electricity is a game for head players.
[**]t last,according to the prediction of China Electricity Council,by 2035,the number of power exchange stations in China will reach 10000,and the market space for power exchange services will reach 120 billion yuan.
"You may think that the air outlet is coming,but the power exchange mode is not a air outlet.It is a technological path that must be chosen to promote the leapfrog development of the new energy vehicle industry,and even the only technological path that can completely replace fuel vehicles."Liu Tongxin said.